from more than 100,000 BBVA Bancomer clients, the main financial institution in Mexico, totaling a number of 25,000 daily transactions.
In Mexico, 50% of the population has a bank account. The data analyzed in this study represents approximately 30% of all bank account holders in the country.
Odile made landfall in September 2014 near Cabo San Lucas as a large category 3 hurricane, with a windspeed of approximately 110kt
Data analytics were employed to derive proxy indicators of the economic impact and market resilience of people in the region.
was built to estimate what the economic activity in Baja California Sur would be under normal conditions based on the activity of other Mexican regions that were not affected by the hurricane . Then, we compared this normal projection with what actually happened.
Overall, the average recovery time was observed to be around 2 weeks. When broken down further by location, recovery times varied from 2 days (possibly due to businesses temporarily closing) to more than 1 month (for the towns located on the south coast where the hurricane struck with its highest intensity). The economic recovery time was also compared with maximum sustained windspeed measurements. Higher maximum sustained windspeeds corresponded with slower recovery times, a pattern possibly due to more damage occurring in these areas. See our publication for more details.
Total expenditure on items such as food and gasoline in the days immediately before the hurricane struck increased by 50%. The mean amount per transaction did not change, implying that the increase in the number of transactions overall was due to more people preparing for the event. In addition, higher income groups spent more in total – in proportion to their income level – in the days before the hurricane struck. Analysis of recovery time by income level revealed a tendency for people with lower income to recover faster.
Level of Income per year
Low [< 120,000 MXN]
Medium [120,000 MXN - 250,000 MXN]
High [> 250,000 MXN]
Click on the filters below.
In an effort to measure community preparation the amount of transactions
conducted the day before the hurricane was analyzed.
The day before the hurricane’s arrival, the spending patterns shifted: transactions in categories such as food or gasoline increased (+20%), suggesting that people were stocking up on food and fuel, while the number of transactions on less essential categories dropped (-10%).
In the aftermath of the hurricane, economic activity decreased across the region. It took two weeks for PoS and one week for ATM transactions to bounce back to normal.
In the 30 days after the impact, there were 30% fewer POS transactions and 12% fewer cash withdrawals than during a normal 30-day period.
can provide new, real-time insights into the economic resilience of people affected by natural disasters. We believe such insights it could be used to support the design of recovery programmes and policies.
For instance, the following visualization displays Baja California Sur’s broader economic context and differences in preparation and recovery patterns of population groups segmented according to their income
Our study also revealed that the increase in women's expenditure in preparation for the event was double that of men. Also, women took slightly longer to return to baseline levels than men.
Less than 120,000 MXN per year
50% of the overall population
Our analysis shows that the lower the income level of a community, the shorter the time needed for economic activity to return to normal levels.
Between 120,000 and 250,000 MXN per year
30% of the overall population
Among this income group it has been measured the narrowest difference between men and women recovery time.
More than 250,000 MXN per year
20% of the overall population
Women of high income is the slowest community to recover their spending habits.
United Nations Global Pulse
Data provided by BBVA Bancomer MexicoData Privacy
This project was conducted in a way that fully protected the privacy of individuals, and complied with applicable data privacy and data protection principles, as well as high standards of ethical and moral conduct. Appropriate risk assessment was conducted prior to the project’s launch. No personal data was shared for the purposes of this research project.
Anonymised data was analysed by an authorized BBVA team of researchers under strict confidentiality, and employing appropriate data security measures. Each transaction was processed as a unique data point, and no longitudinal data associating multiple data points to a single person was used in the project. Only aggregated analysis – (insights drawn from the project research) – were published to remove any possibility of re-identification. To ensure accuracy of the results, relevant domain expertise was used to assist the research.
For more information on the privacy practices of Global Pulse please refer to Global Pulse Principles.